Some project that seeing a Bitcoin at $15,000 by the end of the year is possible. Can we be sure?

Predicting is the favorite sport of the foolish. In other words, it’s the favorite hobby of speculators and gamblers. Here I am talking about predictions in the context of markets such as Bitcoin Loophole app or the stock market. The intelligent investor does not predict, but values. In other words, investing is placing capital in undervalued assets to eventually take advantage of market corrections. Of course, it is possible to go beyond current valuations and project growth in the future. But, in general terms, the only prediction we can make is that markets change.

Of course, this position of mine is a very conservative one. Some actors argue that the predictions are indeed valid. And, in a sense, they are right. After all, every investor buys expecting his investment to increase in price in the future. It is assumed that the investor’s benefit is to buy at one price and then sell at a higher price. That’s a simple matter. But it’s not exactly predicting. By „predicting“ I mean the practice of announcing a specific price on a specific date.

Many say that it is perfectly possible to predict the market. Of course, this is what they say. The problem is that these supposed predictions are almost never fulfilled. We know that. The crypto community is still a small town. And it is extremely easy to prove the pathetic record of our famous predictors, because there are records. Anyone can Google the past predictions of the most famous actors in this space and we will realize that as price predictors they are very bad.

With this, I am not saying that our top bitcoiners are charlatans. What I mean is that predicting the price of Bitcoin is very difficult. The complexity of the task is such that it’s practically impossible. The variables are too many to get an accurate result. However, many bitcoiners are tempted to make predictions, because they know very well that a big number is precisely what people want to hear. In other words, a pompous prediction of the price of Bitcoin generates a lot of media attention. For some, this is irresistible.

Now, is $15K possible for Bitcoin after the election?

Of course it’s possible. But we can’t know for sure. However, we can anticipate several scenarios. We know that financial markets in general don’t react very well to uncertainty. So it would be wise to expect a slowdown in activity and some volatility, thanks to the U.S. presidential election. If the results are close and there are problems, we can expect more uncertainty. And if the victory is wide and without friction, the uncertainty would be less.

A surprise could generate more volatility than a non-surprise. Good news after much uncertainty could drive prices up violently. And bad news could do the same, but in the opposite direction. We saw this in September. September was a month of much uncertainty due to the second wave of the Covid-19, the economic crisis and political tension. However, in recent weeks, the polls are saying that the gap between the two candidates is widening and fears of too narrow an election result are dissipating. As a result, the markets have recovered somewhat.

The importance of price uncertainty must be stressed. Now, what could happen after the elections? History tells us that after a presidential election in the US, markets generally do not assume a very definite trend. In other words, they tend to enter a period of adaptation by assuming a lateral movement, despite temporary ups and downs.

In the short term, the market tends to react better with a victory of the Republican candidate. Because this is the candidate who normally promotes a tax cut and deregulation. Additionally, markets also tend to prefer the reelection candidate to the newcomer. Because markets prefer continuity to change. This means that Trump could have a positive impact (in the short term) on markets if he wins.

However, the economy tends to perform better during Democratic administrations than during Republican ones. So markets tend to grow much more (in the long run).

Major cloud service providers are showing increased interest in joining blockchain networks.

Blockchain is going through a critical turning point, moving from an emerging technology to a useful business tool that companies want to incorporate into their existing IT tools. As more companies continue to explore how blockchain can help achieve the digital transformation, leading cloud service providers are showing increased interest.

For example, Google Cloud recently became a producer of network blocks by joining the EOS blockchain community. Block producers in EOS are chosen by token holders to add transactions to blocks, add blocks to the block chain and implement software changes.

While Google Cloud has yet to be chosen to become one of the 21 active EOS block producers, Allen Day, a Google Cloud developer advocate, told Cointelegraph that Google is very interested in open source protocols and distributed registry technology, or DLT:

„We are seeing active business participation in these types of networks and believe that the Google Cloud can reduce the friction for companies to run their own Google Cloud hosted nodes on the network. We are also providing cloud infrastructure to Block.one, helping them to host their own development efforts“.

Earlier this year, Google Cloud also joined the Hedera Hashgraph board of directors, enabling Google Cloud to operate a Hedera network node. According to Day, Hedera’s ledger data is now available for analysis along with other data sets from the Google Cloud Platform’s public distributed ledger. Google Cloud also runs a validator node for Theta Network, a decentralised video platform.

In addition to Google Cloud’s DLT support, Amazon Web Services is listed as a cloud service provider for China’s blockchain-based service network, a government-backed initiative designed to help small and medium businesses create and deploy blockchain applications. It is also notable that Microsoft announced that it would integrate the Lition blockchain into its Azure Cloud market.

Cloud and DLT technology enable digital transformation

According to Day, DLTs, as a blockchain, are enabling digital transformation. As such, Google wants to raise awareness of how companies can benefit from actively participating in blockchain networks. Specifically, Google Cloud is increasing its own security measures by participating in blockchain networks. Day explained that Google Cloud will take advantage of advanced security measures in EOS and is building security through progressive layers to provide in-depth defence:

„We don’t assume any trust between services and we use multiple mechanisms to establish and maintain trust. Data stored on our Google infrastructure is automatically encrypted at rest and Internet communications with our cloud services are encrypted“.

Kevin Rose, Senior Vice President of Public Engagement for Blockchain at Block.one, the company behind EOS, told Cointelegraph that Google’s participation in EOS will enable new business models for both parties to drive the digital economy.

Alistair Rennie, CEO of IBM Blockchain, told Cointelegraph that blockchain and cloud technologies work quite well together, „Blockchain offers the element of trust that is missing and that cloud technology alone cannot provide,“ he said. „Cloud providers are increasingly interested in Blockchain as a means of enabling greater trust and seamless collaboration between disparate stakeholders“.

Will large enterprises take centralisation to blockchain?

As major cloud service providers join the blockchain revolution, community members may question the impact this could have on a decentralised ecosystem.

Despite this, as the blockchain space continues to mature, it seems that big players like Google, Amazon and Microsoft are being welcomed. Konstantin Richter, founder and CEO of Blockdaemon, a multi-chain cloud-based network management tool, told Cointelegraph that EOS has previously faced scrutiny for lack of diversity among its block producers. However, Richter explained that bringing Google Cloud to the EOS community should certainly help the ecosystem generate more traction:

„It is important to allow participation and allow degrees of decentralisation to create a more efficient, fair and open financial system, as this is a strict requirement for accountability and data validity. We strive to enable decentralisation at the infrastructure level, but we are not replacing a pure diverse set of node owners“.

Echoing Richter, Drew Saunders, founder and CEO of PAC Global, a decentralised storage platform, told Cointelegraph that a reliable blockchain contribution is needed regardless of the individuals or companies involved. Saunders commented that the Google Cloud is known for its reliability and that EOS already has a large, decentralized user base that supports the network.

But given that the EOS network is based on 21 block producers that must be voted on by token holders, it seems that concerns about a block producer or node validator not fulfilling governance functions should not result in network failure. Furthermore, it is important to bear in mind that Google Cloud has not yet been elected. Rose mentioned that the Google Cloud could be voted on quickly if the EOS token holders believe it is necessary:

„It really depends on the Google Cloud and what their plans are for interacting with the EOS Network community. And because voting in the EOS is open and continuous, to ensure that the top 21 is always a real-time reflection of the aggregate will of the EOS token holders, we will constantly evaluate the Google Cloud against our criteria, just as we do with all the Block Producer candidates“.